Buscar
  • Marcel Ramirez

IF URIBE WERE A CANDIDATE, HE WINS PETRO FOR THE PRESIDENCY.


In Colombia there are two very marked political tendencies:


  • Gustavo Petro, who represents progressive socialism.

  • Alvaro Uribe, who represents the conservative right.


The rest of the politicians are fillers that do not represent at this moment nor the 5% trend at the national level.


Colombian politics is strongly marked by the Uribistas and the anti-Uribistas, reaching the extreme that Gustavo Petro, like several candidates with a progressive tendency, have based his political platform on anti-Uribism.


For this reason I decided to make an analysis of which is the political trend that is prevailing at this time and could mark the presidential elections next year.



METHODOLOGY


We apply data mining with the following information:


  1. Results of the last population census

  2. Historical of the last 20 years of the electoral results in Colombia.

  3. Digital activity from April 28 to May 30, 2021.


Using Blockchain technology, we create blocks of information with all the data collected, and through artificial intelligence software, we measure the emotional reactions of people on the internet, to make a projection of votes.


Historically in Colombia, 90% of the citizens vote for emotions and not for convictions.


DATA COLLECTED BETWEEN APRIL 28 AND MAY 30/2021


Former president Alvaro Uribe, is the most influential politician on social networks in Colombia, and surpasses Gustavo Petro in number of followers on all social networks.


Twitter is the social network most used by both politicians and where they concentrate the largest number of followers. Alvaro Uribe has 5'020,000 followers while Gustavo Petro has 4'200,000


Uribe has more likes and more favorable comments on each of his posts compared to Petro's posts, which gets a lot of rejection.


Alvaro Uribe is the most searched politician on the internet, his name has been put many more times than Gustavo Petro's in search engines, and if we make a comparison in Google Trends with Gustavo Petro, we can see that Uribe is much more trending than Petro .









Here we can see in the Google Trends report that the areas where they most seek information about Gustavo Petro is Chocó and El Magdalena, in the rest of the country the trend is widely exceeded by Alvaro Uribe.











Regarding the search for news in digital media, this is also surpassed by Alvaro Uribe, since the news related to Alvaro Uribe are more searched and read than those related to Gustavo Petro.



Colombians have searched the internet in the last 30 days for information on how to get a job, and on how to migrate from the country, the worrying thing is that they have also been looking for information on illicit businesses to obtain money.


But as far as our analysis is concerned, Colombians do not show any interest in issues related to progressivism or socialism, rather they are looking for solutions to their economic crisis and that they associate in their imagination, to issues related to business, investment, security that They are linked to the political tendency of Alvaro Uribe.


CONCLUSIONS


In the imaginary of Colombians, the demonstrations are related to Gustavo Petro and 70% of Colombians DO NOT want the strike to continue, which is causing a rejection of Gustavo Petro's image.


The statements on Social Networks by Gustavo Bolivar and his intention to get on the boat of the demonstrations, are causing a great rejection, collaborating in the bad image that Gustavo Petro is obtaining, at this time.


62% of Colombians believe that Colombia needs a person with a firm and strong character like Alvaro Uribe so that the country can return to order and peace.


In Colombia politics continues to revolve around Alvaro Uribe, the majority of Colombians are located as Uribistas or anti-uribistas.


Uribe's strategy of being very active in social networks, criticizing the strike and asking for a stronger hand, is giving political results in his favor, who has in mind putting the new President and taking control of the Senate and Chamber.


Gustavo Petro did not expect that the strike would stay for so long and have such an impact on Colombian society, now he is against the wall without knowing what to do, because his image is falling and the fear of citizenship that to reach the Presidency turns the country into chaos is hurting it very hard.


The Duque government is politically finished, if he manages to survive this and stay until 2022, his future is very gloomy, because to end the strike he will have to give the country to his promoters, and he will be tied hands, being only a figure decorative.




VOTE PROJECTIONS


I have done an exercise, in which we face Alvaro Uribe and Gustavo Petro as candidates for the second round, and these would be their results based on the data collected on the internet, measuring the emotions and behaviors of citizens.


ALVARO URIBE 11 ́200,000 votes

GUSTAVO PETRO 7´800,000 votes

WHITE - NULL 1´200,000 votes


This projection is made exclusively by measuring the reactions of citizens on the internet. NO SURVEY HAS BEEN CARRIED OUT.

0 visualizaciones0 comentarios