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  • Marcel Ramirez

MARIA FERNANDA CABAL WOULD WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN COLOMBIA TO GUSTAVO PETRO


In Colombia there are two very marked political tendencies:


  1. Socialist Progressism, represented by Gustavo Petro.

  2. The Conservative Right, represented by Uribismo.


Colombian politics is strongly marked by the Uribistas and the anti-Uribistas, reaching the extreme that Gustavo Petro, like several candidates of progressive and left-wing tendencies, have based their political platform on anti-Uribism. Another clear example of this was the NATIONAL STOP, which in the end became an Anti-Uribista expression, where there were no longer proposals or proposals, the only thing that was said was "URIBE PARACO HP" and 4,900 false positives.


Today Gustavo Petro is the firm candidate for the Presidency for progressivism, and the left, while Uribismo, is divided between Maria Fernanda Cabal and Oscar Iván Zuluaga.


This is an analysis that shows us who could be the best option, on the Uribismo side, to face the powerful candidacy of Gustavo Petro.



METHODOLOGY


We apply data mining with the following information:


  1. Results of the last population census

  2. Historical of the last 20 years of the electoral results in Colombia.

  3. Digital activity from July 17 to August 17, 2021.


Using Blockchain technology, we create blocks of information with all the data collected, and using artificial intelligence software, we measure the emotional reactions of people on the internet, to make a projection of votes.


Historically in Colombia, 90% of the citizens vote for emotions and not for convictions.



DATA COLLECTED BETWEEN JULY 17 AND AUGUST 17/2021


Gustavo Petro surpasses with an important difference of followers, in Social Networks, the Uribismo candidates Maria Fernanda Cabal and Oscar Iván Zuluaga. His strongest platform is Twitter, in which he has more than 4,000,000 followers.





Maria Fernanda Cabal, despite having fewer followers than Gustavo Petro and Oscar Iván Zuluaga, has a very strong activity in networks generating a number of comments and likes on her publications, equal to or greater than those of Gustavo Petro.




In internet searches, it is where Maria Fernanda Cabal begins to make a difference, being slightly superior to Gustavo Petro in the number of times they put her name in internet search engines.








The Google Trends report indicates that in the last 30 days, the trends between Maria Fernanda Cabal and Gustavo Petro are very even. the difference is not significant and although it is true Petro outperforms Cabal, the trend is up for Cabal.






In the case of Oscar Ivan Zuluaga, the Google Trends report is lapidary, giving him a crushing difference in favor of Petro, and with a downward trend for Zuluaga.






Regarding the search for news in digital media, this is also surpassed by Maria Fernanda Cabal, since the news related to her are more searched and read than those related to Gustavo Petro or Oscar Iván Zuluaga.




Colombians have searched the internet for information and news related to SECURITY in the last 30 days, and on how to migrate from the country, the worrying thing is that they have also been looking for information on illicit businesses to obtain money.


But as far as our analysis is concerned, Colombians do not show interest in issues related to progressive or socialist ideas or concepts, environmental issues, abortion, LGTBI rights, women's rights, they are not at the table of conversations of the Colombians are not their priority or main concern, but the issues related to SECURITY, if it is of great concern to Colombians and that is where Petro is doing very badly, while Maria Fernanda Cabal moves like a fish in water, with a strong and aggressive speech that excites middle class Colombians, who are the large percentage of votes that define an electoral result.




CONCLUSIONS


In the imaginary of Colombians, the demonstrations are related to Gustavo Petro and 70% of Colombians are desperate due to the climate of insecurity that exists.


Gustavo Bolívar's statements on Social Networks have seriously hurt Gustavo Petro's candidacy. In the imaginary of Colombians "La Primera Línea" is synonymous with vandalism and crime.


62% of Colombians believe that the Country needs a President with firm and strong character to combat insecurity. Citizens do not feel affected if a politician steals 70,000 million pesos, but if he is robbed in the Transmilenio, they steal his cell phone and his only 50,000 pesos that he had in his pocket; that is a tragedy that affects him terribly.


The Uribista strategy of linking the strike and Vandalism to Gustavo Petro paid off, so much so that even the mayor of Bogotá did not miss the opportunity to attack Petro and blame him for all the vandalism.


Gustavo Petro did not expect that the strike would last for so long and have a negative impact on Colombian society, nor does the escalation of violence and insecurity that the country is experiencing in his favor. His very unfortunate suggestions that the State Bank print banknotes to start giving away money did not sit well with the public and rather generated great fear about his economic approaches.


The strength of the statements of Maria Fernanda Cabal, her frontal position in the face of insecurity issues, begin to win hearts within the Colombian middle class where the votes that will define this election are found.


Oscar Iván Zuluaga has just started this career, but he is doing it very slow and very weak in the face of a candidacy as strong as Gustavo Petro's.



VOTE PROJECTIONS


Using Artificial Intelligence, we faced Maria Fernanda Cabal and Gustavo Petro as finalist candidates in the second round, and these would be their results based on data collected on the internet, measuring the emotions and behaviors of citizens.


MARIA FERNANDA CABAL 9´970,000 votes

GUSTAVO PETRO 9´030,000 votes

WHITE - NULL 1´200,000 votes


TOTAL VALID VOTES 20'200,000 votes


This projection is made exclusively by measuring the reactions of citizens on the internet (SOCIAL NETWORKS - SEARCHERS - PLATFORMS).

NO SURVEY HAS BEEN CARRIED OUT.


Now we face Oscar Ivan Zuluaga and Gustavo Petro as finalist candidates in the second round.


GUSTAVO PETRO 11´350,000 votes

OSCAR IVAN ZULUAGA 7´650,000 votes

WHITE - NULL 1´200,000 votes



TOTAL VALID VOTES 20'200,000 votes


This projection is made exclusively by measuring the reactions of citizens on the internet (SOCIAL NETWORKS - SEARCHERS - PLATFORMS).

NO SURVEY HAS BEEN CARRIED OUT.

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