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Writer's pictureMarcel Ramirez

REPUBLICANS WILL WIN THE PRESIDENCY IN 2024

Updated: Sep 19


In a projection made with Artificial Intelligence, the Republicans would win the 2024 presidential election with 279 electoral votes, while the Democrats would have a total of 259 electoral votes:


Democrats have won the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections, and I don't think that will change. However, the economy is suffering and the Democrats have yet to make any significant changes. The Democratic nominee in this 2024 election will do better than Hillary in 2016, when she won the popular vote by a 2.1 margin, but worse than Biden in 2020, when he won the popular vote by a 4.4 margin.


Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina will be the key states for these presidential elections.


Florida is leaning too strongly Republican for Democrats to hope for a change to win this state.


Michigan could be the tipping point state; I think the party that wins Michigan will win the election.


BENEFITS OF PROJECTION WITH ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE


Past presidential polls, both public and campaign-financed polls, have large margins of error. These errors are due in part to numerous issues, including sampling error and unpredictable participation. These mistakes have costs: they can lead to a massive misallocation of resources, both financial and human capital, which in turn can lead to unpredictable election results on both sides of the aisle. Today there is a battlefield that is social networks and Internet search engines, where the vast majority of voters move and express their tendencies. We must begin to measure and interpret what happens in these fields. While the past cannot perfectly predict the future, with the right analytics, I believe it is possible to build models using past behavior, online and Internet browser activities to predict future outcomes.



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